Record trade and technology access strengthen the UAE, as Hormuz tensions test corporate resilience

Regional shipping security deteriorated after two UAE-linked oil tankers were reportedly struck by cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 14 July, killing one crew member and injuring eight. The United States reinstated its blockade on ships travelling to and from Iranian ports; a proposed 20% transit charge was announced, then withdrawn after Gulf governments objected.

Brent crude held above USD 90 per barrel on 20 July, up roughly 20% for the month. The Strait is not only an energy story: it is the commercial artery connecting the Gulf to Asia, Europe and Africa. Any sustained reduction in traffic feeds into insurance premiums, container availability, delivery timelines, working capital and confidence.

What businesses should do

Map which suppliers, customers and routes depend on the Strait, directly or through ports, forwarders and transshipment points. Then review:

• Minimum stock levels, alternative suppliers and shipping routes
• Cargo and business-interruption insurance
• Force-majeure and price-adjustment clauses
• Emergency cash reserves and continuity plans

Geopolitical risk now belongs inside feasibility studies and forecasts. Model three scenarios: normalisation, moderate disruption, prolonged disruption. The goal is not to discourage investment; it is to enter the market with realistic margins, sufficient liquidity and supplier alternatives.

The Financial Times reported that DP World is in discussions on a new multipurpose port and container terminal in Fujairah, giving companies access via the Gulf of Oman and reducing dependence on routes inside the Strait. DP World declined to confirm the project but acknowledged diversification plans; the reported investment runs to several hundred million dollars with completion possible within roughly 18 months.

Dubai Customs, meanwhile, already allows eligible shipments to enter through Fujairah, Khorfakkan and the Hatta border. Its expanded Green Corridor handled 203,242 containers worth AED 33.9 billion between March and June, from 188 countries, with an instant-clearance rate of about 93%.

Why it matters

Traditional port arrangements are no longer automatically the most reliable or economical option. Importers, especially in food, medical supplies and time-sensitive inventory, should compare Jebel Ali against eastern-coast entry on cost, clearance, storage and delivery time.

Port selection belongs in the operating model from day one. A company can be licensed in one emirate and import, store or distribute through another. Choosing a formation jurisdiction without considering the logistics model creates unnecessary cost later.

Non-oil foreign trade reached approximately AED 1.937 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 13.1% year on year. Non-oil exports rose 23.9% to AED 452.8 billion, now 23.4% of total non-oil trade: evidence of the UAE's shift from re-export centre to producer and exporter. China remained the largest partner (AED 180.7 billion), followed by Switzerland (AED 138.4 billion) and India (AED 107.5 billion). Gold was the largest commodity at AED 706.2 billion.

Trade under fully operational Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements reached AED 304.3 billion, with UAE non-oil exports to those markets at AED 66.1 billion. CEPAs are moving beyond announcements and into actual commercial flows: reduced duties, predictable rules of origin, faster customs cooperation. Lower tariffs are not automatic, though; products must satisfy rules of origin and documentation conditions.

Why it matters for SMEs

The record creates room for smaller businesses in food processing, consumer products, building materials, logistics, trade finance, packaging and distribution. African and Ethiopian businesses can use the UAE as a platform into Asia, the Gulf and Europe, provided they bring a viable product, a documented supply chain and a clear read on the destination market.

Registering a UAE company and building an export-ready operation are different projects. An export feasibility study should cover target demand, product standards, rules of origin, customs classification, transport costs, payment terms, distributor margins and working capital. The infrastructure is an advantage; execution stays with the business.

Dubai Customs delivered more than AED 79 million in liquidity support to 428 companies, while over 6,600 firms benefited from an extended 120-day settlement period for eligible customs transactions. Other measures included duty instalments, an 80% reduction in certain penalties, and transit periods extended from 30 to 90 days. More than 4,000 new customers registered during the period.

Customs duties are normally paid before goods are sold or customers pay. Extended settlement and instalments directly ease working-capital pressure, especially for importers with large inventories, food and commodity traders, automotive and spare-parts firms, and medical suppliers. Relief is not automatic; eligibility and documentation must be confirmed with Dubai Customs or an authorised representative.

Customs planning is the most overlooked line in UAE entry budgets. Founders count licence, visas, rent and staff, then under-allocate for duties, VAT, freight, insurance, clearance and storage. For import-based businesses, working-capital planning matters more than the formation cost itself.

The US Bureau of Industry and Security moved the UAE from Country Groups D:3 and D:4 to Country Group A:5, effective 10 July. A:5 destinations receive more favourable treatment under the Strategic Trade Authorization framework: approved UAE government entities and qualifying companies can access certain controlled technologies without a licence for every transaction, including selected advanced-computing products such as AI chips and servers.

The relevant categories span artificial intelligence, advanced computing, semiconductor infrastructure, data centres, civil nuclear energy, aerospace and satellites. This is not a blanket exemption: eligibility depends on the recipient, the technology, the end use, security arrangements, recordkeeping and re-export restrictions. UAE licensing, data-protection and cybersecurity rules continue to apply.

Why it matters

The upgrade is a formal signal that approved UAE institutions meet higher technology-protection standards. Expect stronger pull for AI data centres, cloud infrastructure, semiconductor-linked investment, aerospace and R&D, and more international firms building technical operations here rather than sales offices only.

Consider export-control requirements at the formation stage. The licensed activity, ownership structure, equipment source, end-user profile and operating location all affect access to controlled technology. Ordering equipment before confirming eligibility invites delays, rejected shipments and compliance costs.

On 20 July the Central Bank announced nationwide issuance of Jaywan, the UAE's first national payment-card scheme. Banks, licensed financial institutions and exchange houses will issue cards in phases, supporting point-of-sale, e-commerce, ATMs, digital wallets and contactless payments. The scheme is designed for domestic use, with international transactions subject to applicable arrangements.

A domestic scheme gives the country greater control over payment routing, local processing, data governance and system continuity. The Central Bank frames Jaywan as payment sovereignty, financial inclusion and resilience. For banks and fintechs it creates work in issuance, processing, fraud prevention, onboarding and wallet integration; for merchants, the effect depends on acceptance arrangements and fees.

Fintechs entering the UAE must distinguish ordinary technology services from regulated financial activity. Software for banks needs a different licence from storing funds, processing payments or issuing instruments. Review the operating model before choosing a jurisdiction or licence.

The Middle East Stablecoin Association was incorporated in the DIFC on 15 July as a non-profit, the region's first dedicated stablecoin industry body. It will convene issuers, banks, exchanges, payment companies, advisers, infrastructure providers and policymakers around research, education, policy dialogue and industry standards.

Stablecoins are being weighed for cross-border payments, treasury transfers, supplier settlement, remittances and tokenised markets. The UAE already regulates payment tokens and virtual assets through the Central Bank, DFSA, VARA and ADGM's FSRA. The association does not replace regulators; its value is a forum for standards and implementation.

Calling a venture a "technology company" does not stop the activity being financially regulated. Before launching a stablecoin, wallet, exchange or payment platform, confirm which regulator has jurisdiction and whether the activity is permitted in the proposed jurisdiction.

Concluding a staff visit on 17 July, the IMF described the UAE economy as significantly resilient: strong financial buffers, well-capitalised banks, and supply chains and market confidence maintained through the conflict. It nonetheless expects GDP slightly lower in 2026, driven by weaker non-hydrocarbon activity, with tourism, transportation, trade and real estate affected by uncertainty.

Recovery could begin in the second half if conditions normalise, with stronger growth expected in 2027. Inflation may rise moderately on food and energy costs, while fiscal and external accounts remain in surplus. The real-estate market has moderated, though prices generally remain at or above 2025 levels.

Do not build a business plan on one national GDP forecast. Test lower revenue, higher freight and insurance costs, delayed payments and longer entry periods. A resilient company is not one that assumes nothing goes wrong; it is one that stays viable when conditions disappoint.

Ajman Bank listed a USD 300 million Additional Tier 1 perpetual sukuk on Nasdaq Dubai on 14 July: Mudaraba structure, 6.50% return, 1.7-times oversubscribed, 89% allocated to MENA investors. Nasdaq Dubai now carries roughly USD 98 billion in outstanding sukuk across USD 140 billion of listed debt.

Dubai Islamic Bank reported first-half gross revenue of AED 12.4 billion, up 10%, with financing assets of AED 281 billion and pre-tax profit of AED 4.3 billion; 98% of customers now transact digitally. ADX added six single-stock futures, bringing its derivatives offering to 17 futures and 50 contracts, with data reaching about 350,000 Bloomberg Terminal users.

Why it matters

Deeper sukuk, banking and derivatives markets give companies more ways to raise capital, hedge exposure and structure Sharia-compliant financing. For SMEs, stronger capital markets gradually improve financing availability across the economy.